SNF Leakage Calculator
Interactive model estimating IRF-appropriate patients being discharged to SNFs
Model Assumptions: This calculator uses industry benchmarks (85% SNF leakage rate) and estimated discharge volumes. Adjust parameters below to explore different scenarios. For actual discharge destination data, Louisiana LAHIDD purchase is recommended.
IRF-Appropriate Patients
4,400
8% of total discharges
SNF Leakage
3,740
85% going to SNFs
Current Capture
480
10.9% market share
Total Opportunity
$67.3M
Annual revenue potential
Model Parameters
Adjust assumptions to explore different scenarios
All target hospitals combined
Industry benchmark: 7-10%
Industry benchmark: 85-90%
Annual admissions
Per patient
For ADC calculation
Capture Scenarios
Revenue potential at different SNF leakage capture rates
Conservative
10%374 patients
31/month
$6.7M
Annual revenue
+18 ADC
Census increase
Moderate
20%748 patients
62/month
$13.5M
Annual revenue
+37 ADC
Census increase
Aggressive
30%1,122 patients
94/month
$20.2M
Annual revenue
+55 ADC
Census increase
SNF Leakage by Hospital
Estimated leakage from each target hospital
| Hospital | Location | Total Discharges | IRF-Appropriate | SNF Leakage | Revenue Opportunity | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Jefferson Medical Center | Marrero | 12,000 | 960 | 816 | $14.7M | HIGH |
| Ochsner Medical Center (Main) | New Orleans | 35,000 | 2,800 | 2,380 | $42.8M | MEDIUM |
| Ochsner West Bank Campus | Gretna | 8,000 | 640 | 544 | $9.8M | HIGH |
SNF Leakage by Diagnosis
Based on national IRF admission distribution
| Diagnosis Category | % of IRF-Appropriate | IRF-Appropriate | SNF Leakage | Revenue Opportunity | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stroke | 25% | 1,100 | 935 | $16.8M | HIGH |
| Hip/Knee Replacement | 20% | 880 | 748 | $13.5M | HIGH |
| Hip Fracture | 15% | 660 | 561 | $10.1M | MEDIUM |
| Brain Injury | 12% | 528 | 449 | $8.1M | HIGH |
| Neurological Disorders | 10% | 440 | 374 | $6.7M | MEDIUM |
| Major Multiple Trauma | 8% | 352 | 299 | $5.4M | MEDIUM |
| Spinal Cord Injury | 5% | 220 | 187 | $3.4M | HIGH |
| Amputation | 3% | 132 | 112 | $2.0M | MEDIUM |
| Other | 2% | 88 | 75 | $1.4M | LOW |
Model Assumptions & Data Sources
Data Sources:
- Medicare.gov Hospital Compare (Ochsner Medical Center profile)
- CMS IRF 60% Rule Specifications (13 qualifying conditions)
- MedPAC Payment Basics - IRF (industry benchmarks)
- Louisiana Hospital Association (discharge volumes)
Key Assumptions:
- IRF-appropriate rate: 8% (industry benchmark: 7-10%)
- SNF leakage rate: 85% (industry benchmark: 85-90%)
- Diagnosis distribution based on national IRF admission patterns
- Hospital discharge volumes are estimates (Medicare + commercial)
- No actual discharge destination data (would require Louisiana LAHIDD purchase)
Validation Recommendations:
- Purchase Louisiana LAHIDD data for actual discharge destinations
- Track liaison field intelligence on observed SNF placements
- Survey case managers for estimated SNF vs IRF placement rates
- Interview key physicians to validate referral patterns